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Afternoon Note

Sticky Inflation

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
3/14/2024 1:43 PM

The S&P 500 is in the red with nine of eleven sectors declining. Interest-rate sensitive sectors, Real Estate and Utilities, are the worst performer.

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Treasury yields surged to two-week highs after this morning’s data showed weak consumer spending and hot inflation.

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Hot producer prices and weak retail sales don’t look great. This morning, we saw headline and core PPI at 1.6% and 2.0% y/y, both above consensus of 1.2% and 1.9% y/y. The Fed’s plans to reduce interest rates are going to be very difficult to justify given the latest trend on inflation.

Now, the probability of a June rate cut has moved below 60% from 74% a week ago.

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