Afternoon Note
It feels like a hundred years ago, but the February jobs report was released on Friday, and it’s still triggering debate. A lot of folks are sharpening their pencils, because there wasn’t a major firm expecting the unemployment rate to zoom up to 3.9%.
There was a decline of 15,400 temp workers, which brings the total to 433,300 laid off temp workers since March 2022.
Laid off temp workers are usually a precursor to laid off full time.
Another bad omen for full-time workers is the spike in unemployment for young workers.
Spike in Unemployment Rate |
February |
January |
16 to 19 |
12.5 |
10.6 |
20 to 24 |
7.2 |
5.9 |
Leading up to the report, the decline in quits was the biggest red flag of the week.
A further examination sees declines below the 2017-2019 average in the best paying jobs:
And just moments ago, the New York Fed released interesting data.
There was a leap to 14.5% probability of losing a job over the next twelve months.
And a corresponding decline in the probability of finding a job is down to 52.5%.
In both cases these are the worst levels since April 2021.
And now, the new budget proposal is out, and it’s a doozy.
We will have more details in the morning Hotline, but I don’t think you are getting off scot-free.
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4/26/2024 1:46 PM | Full Steam |
4/26/2024 9:39 AM | BIG TECH STEPS UP |
4/25/2024 1:16 PM | Don't' Bury me, Yet! |
4/25/2024 9:27 AM | THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE |
4/24/2024 1:30 PM | Earnings Flood In |
4/24/2024 9:26 AM | BUYING THE DIP |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
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