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Afternoon Note

Grass Roots Optimism

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/16/2018 2:26 PM

The major indices have given up their gains as some fear.  Health Care, Real Estate and Technology sectors are strong with Merck (MRK) being the top performer on the Dow. Meanwhile, Energy, Industrials, Materials, Telecom Services and Utilities lag. 

General Electric (GE) has taken the Industrials lower after announcing it is contemplating a major break up would take a larger than anticipated charge $6.2 billion for it legacy reinsurance business. Energy is also down today as oil has pull backed from close to a 3-year high. WTI is around $64 a barrel, down around 0.5%.

Decliners now outpace advancers 1598/1316 on NYSE and 1721/1051 on the Nasdaq. 

Bitcoin is down significantly, -15% to 11,300 as concerns continue to mount on trading bans by various countries.  That is not detracting all investors, and you can even buy a portion of Dr. Wei Tzuoh Chen’s $45 million, 9,000 square foot home Malibu mansion with Bitcoins.

Speaking of homes, home equity has hit a record high as homeowners are remodeling their homes rather than moving.

 In 2017, $152 billion was spent on remodeling, and that number is expected to rise in 2018.  With the increase in housing prices, home equity is rising, and many owners are taking advantage of the cash they are sitting on and taking home equity loans out to pay for these renos.    According to Black Knight, home equity is at an all-time high, and the amount available for homeowners to borrow before they hit the 80% home equity required, is $3 trillion higher than it was in 2012.

The Housing Market Index (HMI) December data continued to climb, rising to 74 from November’s revised 69.  Tomorrow, we will get the January report. The HMI is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members that rate market conditions for the sale of new homes from present to the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

United States Nahb Housing Market Index

Another major housing component that hasn’t received attention today is the huge prospective buyer traffic that is at the highest level since December 1993.  This is intriguing and underscores the grass roots optimism. 

 


Comments
I am seeing tremendous growth in the new home sector in Beaufort County SC. There are a number of new (super huge) communities being developed for the over 55 population in addition to a significant influx of younger families purchasing single family homes and town houses. The Senior population is coming mostly from the Northeast and the Midwest. The younger families are coming from multiple locations. This area of the country is benefiting from a moderate cost of living, low taxes, plentiful employment in the construction, manufacturing, hospitality and other service industries. Additionally, the development of the Savannah Port in both Jasper County SC and in Savannah will also offer numerous employment opportunities for the region in the near and long term.

John J. Mc Andris on 1/16/2018 3:21:42 PM
 

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