2/12/2024
By Charles Payne CEO & Principal Analyst

Not Over Extended

I had the great Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity on my show last week, and we reviewed bear market recoveries. These were the subsequent rallies out of bear markets.

• As it turns out, the current recovery is only run-of-the-mill at about 40% from the bear market low (see red circle)
• Only one bear market recovery has yielded a smaller gain than the current rally

Jurrien’s work goes back to 1877 when the first bear market recovery enjoyed a 140% gain.

The largest recovery was in the 1930s, preceded by the largest bear market. The 410% return made up for the 87% decline.

So, the size of the bear market influences the size of recovery.

Of course, additional factors to consider regarding these bear stock market recoveries include the composition of the rally and its main drivers.

But as history goes, this has been a run-of-the-mill recovery, which suggests more upside to this rally even if it feels like euphoria has run amok.

To read full report contact your account representative or email Info@wstreet.com. 

Charles Payne
Wall Street Strategies

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